A new poll suggests that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc would secure 51 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today, falling short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member parliament. The survey, released on Thursday, indicates a potential stalemate as the main Zionist opposition bloc is projected to win 55 seats.
The poll highlights the possible pivotal role of two Arab-majority parties, which are expected to gain a combined total of 14 seats. This outcome may position them as key players in future coalition negotiations. Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is anticipated to become the largest party, with 24 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to secure 14 seats.
Within Netanyahu’s bloc, Likud is forecasted to win 22 seats, with Shas following at 10 seats. United Torah Judaism is expected to gain nine seats, Otzma Yehudit seven, and Religious Zionism four. Meanwhile, the People of Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, garnered only 3% support, falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.
Other parties such as HaMiluimnikim and Blue and White also did not meet the threshold. The poll’s results suggest a continued political impasse, with 31.4% of respondents favoring another election if a deadlock occurs. In contrast, 29.6% support the idea of forming a unity government, and 27% are in favor of a minority government.
Among Netanyahu’s supporters, 45.02% expressed a preference for a unity government, whereas opponents showed the strongest backing for a minority government, at 39.79%. The survey, which included 500 respondents, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, underscoring ongoing uncertainty regarding the formation of the next Israeli government ahead of the October 27 election.