Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future hangs in the balance as final election results reveal that his bloc has fallen short of a parliamentary majority. The election has resulted in Arab-led parties securing 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, positioning them as potential kingmakers in the formation of the next government.
Netanyahu’s coalition achieved 53 seats, while the main opposition alliance garnered 48. With 61 seats needed to form a government, both sides must seek support from other political factions. The opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, could potentially ally with Arab-led parties to form a majority coalition of up to 67 seats, though this faces opposition from right-wing factions.
The increasing political influence of Arab citizens, who make up around 20% of Israel’s population, is evidenced by their record voter turnout and resistance to Netanyahu’s far-right allies. However, Netanyahu has criticized any potential coalition involving Arab parties as a threat to national security.
An alternative resolution could involve a national unity government, but opposition leaders have consistently rejected serving under Netanyahu. They have cited dissatisfaction with his handling of national security, particularly following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and concerns over democratic institutions. Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial remains a contentious issue.
Adding complexity to the situation are allegations of possible foreign interference in the election. Israel’s election authorities have called for a Shin Bet investigation into claims of irregularities, which Qatar has denied. Election officials emphasize that unverified allegations should not undermine the legitimacy of Arab voters or the final results.
If coalition talks falter, Israel may face another election early next year, with Netanyahu’s administration continuing in a caretaker role. The final election results will be submitted to President Isaac Herzog, who will designate a candidate to attempt to form the next government. The new Knesset is set to be sworn in on November 10, leaving Israel’s political landscape uncertain as parties negotiate potential alliances.